The books

Frans Cronje has published three books on South Africa's future.

The Rise or Fall of South Africa is Frans Cronje’s third book and was published at the end of April of 2020.

The book develops a brand new set of scenarios to demonstrate how the world and South Africa will change into the 2030s and beyond. On South Africa it argues that the country is at the verge of a political and economic realignment on par with what it experienced in the 1980s and 1990s. The present Covid-19 pandemic is likely to accelerate that realignment and within a decade South Africa's political, economic, and social standing may be unrecognisable from what it is today. Since the publication of the first book in the series a growing number of South African firms and individuals have begun to look beyond the country's borders to opportunities and futures in the rest of the world. The Rise and Fall of South Africa has followed  them and focuses much analysis on how global balances of power and economic and technological trends will unfold and what the implications for South Africa's rapidly expanding corporate and family diaspora will be. The election prospects of Donald Trump, the future of Europe after Brexit, the outlook for the Middle East, the rise of India, and the prospects for China's long term political and economic development are all covered. In its latter chapters the book offers advice on how firms, families, and the South African government should position themselves to avoid short-term economic and political risks and take advantage of the global and South African opportunities that will present themselves over the longer term.   

Kindle versions of the book can be ordered from www.amazon.com via this link. Hard copy versions will become available should South Africa’s current Covid-19 lockdown provisions be lifted.

Briefings on the book can be arranged via cra-sa.com


Frans Cronje's first book on South Africa's future is titled A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years and was published in May of 2014.

It set out four scenarios for South Africa’s route to 2024. The first of these, the Wide Road, suggested that the African National Congress (ANC) would stage and internal reformation and amidst massive popular support introduce reforms to turn the South African economy around. Economic growth rates would exceed 5% by 2019 and South Africa would emerge as one of the world's most exciting emerging markets. In the second scenario, the Narrow Road, a desperate government would follow the example of the Asian Tiger economies to suppress civil rights in order to force a series of pro-investment reforms against the wishes of a rebellious and hostile public. Economic growth rates would again exceed levels of 5% and South Africa would play a prominent role in shaping the evolution of increasingly authoritarian high growth economies across the African continent. In the third scenario, the Rocky Road, the government would reject the need for economic reform, become incredibly corrupt, and turn to destroying South Africa’s democracy in a bid to cling to power. The country would sink into recession amidst staggering corruption and terrible civil rights abuses. The fourth scenario, the Toll Road, suggested that infighting would see the government fail to introduce economic reforms but also fail in destroying South Africa's democracy. Support for the once dominant ANC would sink rapidly in major urban areas as the economy was brought to its knees. Massive protests would sweep the country and South Africa would enter a new and ultra-volatile era of coalition politics.

The Toll Road scenario materialized and two years after the book was published the ruling party was at war with itself. In the 2016 local government elections its support level slipped to a record low 54% as it lost political control of Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Port Elizabeth. Party leaders warned that it may lose a future national election. Massive protests swept the country. Parliament was regularly thrown into pandemonium and economic growth rates hit their lowest levels since the 2009 global financial crisis. 

Click here to buy the book online from Amazon.com or visit any Exclusive Books store in South Africa.


His second book is titled A Time Traveller’s Guide to South Africa in 2030 and was published in May of 2017.

Taking cognisance of the changes that have taken place in the country since 2014, the book introduced four brand new scenarios for South Africa one year after the 2029 election. The first of these, the Rise of the Right, suggested that the state will grow more powerful and authoritarian and use that authority to force pragmatic economic policies along the lines of the model followed by Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore and Paul Kagame in Rwanda. Coinciding with a global economic recovery and commodity price bounce-back those reforms would take the economic growth rate to record highs and trigger massive new job creation and entrepreneurial activity. By the early 2020s South Africa would emerge as a stable and increasingly prosperous society - a remarkable turnaround that shaped the evolution of high growth economies across the continent. The second scenario is titled the Tyranny of the Left. In this scenario the state would also become authoritarian but use its power not for reform but to extort wealth out of the tax base and the private sector while suppressing political dissent and civil rights. Land and businesses are nationalised and property rights destroyed. In this future the economy would stutter and stumble along, foreign and domestic investment would dry up, and living standards would fall. South Africa would later collapse into the grip of a cruel dictatorship and all hope for a better future would be lost. The third scenario was titled The Break-up. In this scenario the state weakened as the economy stalled and amidst rising levels of internal conflict South Africans would drift apart into enclaves. Behind their high walls the more prosperous enclaves would become de-facto private countries with high standards of living. But outside of the walls the rural poor would fall under the control of tribal leaders while an emerging gang culture became the de-facto government in urban slums. As South Africans turned away from each other the country would splinter irreparably along lines of race and class. The fourth scenario was titled the Rise of the Rainbow. In this future the ruling party and the opposition would enter into a coalition and allow the private sector to take the lead in returning economic growth rates to levels upwards of 5% as unemployment rates fell, living standards rose, and South Africa emerged, against all the odds, as a free, open, stable, and prosperous society.

Visit any Exclusive Books store in South Africa to buy the book or buy online from www.loot.co.za or visit www.amazon.com to buy for kindle.