In the media

Below follow a selection of reviews and media citations of Frans Cronje's books and scenarios for South Africa.
South Africa's scenarios under Cyril Ramaphosa - 8 February 2018

Knowing which scenario will materialise for a given country or economy requires a very detailed understanding of the relationships between economic, social, political, and policy trends. Those trends in turn give rise to markers that analysts can use to find their way around a set of scenarios - a road-map, in a sense, to the future. As the markers crystalize it becomes possible for a firm to identify the most plausible scenario and implement the most appropriate country strategy. The analysis below sets out the economic, social, political, and policy trends and relationships that took South Africa to November of 2017 (just before the ruling party's December leadership conference) - and the scenarios that will now play out for South Africa under the leadership of Mr Cyril Ramaphosa.

New Dawn scenario for South Africa's ruling party - 25 January 2018 (first released in January of 2013)

In January of 2013 a scenario for the future of the African National Congress was published called New Dawn. It held that despite the established drift of then current economic and policy trends the ANC might stage an internal reformation. The document specifically predicted that ‘reformists within the party, building largely on the blueprint laid down in the National Development Plan, [will] seize policy control of the ANC and bring about a series of initially unpopular changes...’ and that ‘the ANC is in an impossible position and will have to change to avoid the electorate changing it in the 2024 election'. At the time the reformation argument was readily dismissed in board rooms and the media and most major trends pointed in a different direction. The official opposition rejected it outright. But today Cyril Ramaphosa leads the ruling party, the removal of Jacob Zuma from the president's office is imminent, and business and media sentiment alike have turned sharply positive. The currency has strengthened near 20% in just over a month - and proven private sector leaders have taken the helm at Eskom. It is still too early to say whether the New Dawn scenario will be realised for the ANC as many tough policy decisions must still be taken. But few observers could deny that a number of the flags around New Dawn have gone up over the past month - which goes to establish yet again what a powerful long term strategic intelligence tool scenario planning can be.

The prospects for policy reform in South Africa in 2018 - Politicsweb, 10 January 2018

Much hope rides on Mr Cyril Ramaphosa to drive a series of policy reforms that will position South Africa as a more competitive emerging market. With South Africa's economic growth rate forecast to underperform emerging market averages by over 70% this year reform is urgent. But a number of hurdles lie in the way of reform - both within and beyond Mr Ramaphosa's party.

South Africa still has a good story to tell - News24, 7 December 2017

The mood in South Africa has turned sharply pessimistic. A slowing economy, massive unemployment, and allegations of state capture have combined to form a dark cloud that overshadows the promise of 1994. Amidst the funk, however, one organisation has, at times, taken a different view, producing a series of reports that show South Africa as a country that has also made considerable progress. News24 spoke to the CEO of the IRR, Frans Cronje, about what his organisation has been arguing about South Africa's post-1994 progress

ANC leadership race is not a zero-sum-game event - BizNews, 20 October 2017

Analysts and observors should not see the result of the 2017 ANC leadership race as a zero-sum-game for South Africa. In fact a very messy outcome is likley to be triggerred by the very closeness of the race and it will be some time before clarity emerges on the balance of power within South Africa's ruling party.