The series

The purpose of the scenario series is to map the route to South Africa's next political and economic transition by using futures research on South Africa to give significant advance warning of how South Africa will change between now and 2030. Relying on detailed economic and social analysis, and first hand political information, Frans Cronje's scenarios provide precise assessments of how major trends will evolve. The scenarios in turn allow strategic planners to navigate safely around South Africa's economic and political risks while identifying future strategic opportunities.

From economic growth and policy to currency strength, inflation, interest rates, debt levels, and the budget deficit, to wealth management, property rights, crime, jobs, education, and political stability the scenarios cut through the present uncertainties to deliver clear answers about what will change in South Africa, how it will change, and what that change will mean for large businesses and ordinary people alike.

The scenarios explain what this means for our future and what South Africa will look like in 2030. Will a spark ignite the powder keg? Will South Africa take the socialist route and allow the state to seize all wealth and land? Will the status quo prevail, and the wealth divide widen while crime soars? Do we face a pernicious erosion of our democratic rights and freedoms? Or will a rainbow rise unexpectedly?

To date more than 100 companies and foreign investors have used the scenarios in their strategic planning processes while an estimated 20 000 people have attended briefings on the scenarios.


About the author

Frans Cronje is a scenario planner and CEO of South Africa’s top policy research group and think-tank, the IRR. He was educated at St Johns College in Houghton and the University of the Witwatersrand and holds a PhD in scenario planning from North West University.